Muqtada’s Retirement from Iraqi Politics Shows the Power of the Maraji
On 29 August 2022, Muqtada Al-Sadr, Iraq’s Shi’ite-nationalist leader, announced his permanent retirement from Iraqi politics. One of the major factors that led to this announcement was the decision by Sayyid Kadhim Al-Haeri, the Grand Ayatollah and the spiritual leader of the Sadrist Movement, to withdraw his support from Muqtada. While this is not the […]
Lebanon’s New Lawmakers and the Potential of Parliamentary Friendship Groups
In May 2022, Lebanon held parliamentary elections with a turnout of 49.2 per cent, including the votes of Lebanese expatriates living abroad[i]—a 0.5 per cent drop since 2018. Yet the electoral stakes were higher than ever for the population. A multi-layered economic calamity, a protracted political crisis, the aftermath of the 2020 Beirut port explosion, […]
Regime Legitimation in Syria: How the West Is Falling for Bashar al-Assad’s Propaganda
“Assad or no one”; “Assad or we burn the country.” This slogan, first uttered by militiamen at the onset of the Syrian Civil War, reflects Bashar al-Assad’s relation to power: in his vision, the Syrian state and the name Assad are inseparable. Historically inherited from his father’s power practice,[i] he perceives himself as the sole legitimate […]
Bahrain: Tribalism, Sectarianism, and the Challenges of the 21st Century
More than any other Arab Gulf state, Bahrain reflects the contradictions and conflicts of its past—an ossified British colonial political structure without the British. Al Khalifah rule is a byproduct of Pax Britannia—the Al Khalifah happened to be at the right place at the right time. Contemporary Bahraini stability and security challenges are rooted in the […]
Saudi Arabia is the Gulf’s Status Quo Power
Saudi Arabia has been an anchor of stability and growth in the Gulf and beyond. There are at least three reasons for this. First, as the largest economy in the Arab world, it acts as a major source of economic support for struggling Arab nations. Second, as the largest state in the Gulf region, it […]
The UAE and Qatar’s Thawing Relationship
In recent years, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been on a diplomatic spree, re-normalising relations with a host of countries in the region, including Syria, Iran and Turkey, as well as formalising ties with Israel. The UAE’s reconciliation with Qatar following the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) historic al-Ula summit of January 2021 is illustrative […]
Iraq’s Diplomatic Mediations: Strong on Symbolism but Short on Substance
Over the last two years, Iraq has been overwhelmed with protests, internal instability, US-Iran confrontation on Iraqi soil, political stalemate, and intra-Shia power rivalries. However, against all odds, Iraq has also witnessed an unprecedented diplomatic push, with attempts to integrate the country into the regional political and economic map and establish itself as a player […]
Charting a New Direction: Turkey and Israel Normalise Ties
On 17 August 2022, Turkey and Israel announced that they would restore diplomatic ties and appoint ambassadors. Signs that the tide was turning were apparent with Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s highly publicised visit to Ankara in March—the first trip by an Israeli head of state to Turkey since 2007. Later in May, Turkish foreign minister […]
Is the Anti-Assad Camp Stuck in a Prisoner’s Dilemma?
Recent events surrounding the Syrian war are impacting diplomatic and political processes designed to end it, including Turkish calls for reconciliation talks with the Syrian government. This is a result of Russian efforts to force a rapprochement between Ankara, the Syrian opposition, and the Kurds in northeast Syria with the Assad regime, developing a prisoner’s […]
Why Peace Isn’t Coming to Iran-GCC Relations
Iran and the remaining parties to the nuclear agreement—formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—plus the United States have been locked into talks about its revival for close to a year and a half. Upon the formal adoption of the new agreement and following the initial process it outlines, Iran will have […]