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The Cambridge Middle East and North Africa Forum (MENAF) hosted an online discussion examining Syria’s political and security transition following the collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024. The event explored the emerging political order under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the challenges of rebuilding state institutions, the integration of Kurdish-controlled territories and the implications of wider regional conflict for Syria’s sovereignty and reconstruction. Central to the discussion was whether the country’s transition was establishing the foundations for lasting stability or consolidating a new form of authoritarian governance.
Political Transition and the Consolidation of Power
The discussion began by assessing Syria’s progress approximately eighteen months after the fall of the Assad regime. While the new authorities had achieved important diplomatic successes and restored elements of central governance, the domestic political transition remained fragile.
A distinction emerged between stabilisation, state-building and genuine political transition. Although the government had preserved and begun rebuilding state institutions, the concentration of authority within the presidency and a narrow governing circle raised concerns about the development of accountable political structures.
The emerging system was characterised as a hybrid post-war order combining the language of reform and transitional justice with centralised executive authority and restricted political participation. It differed from the extensive coercive apparatus of the Assad era, but had not developed into an open democratic system.
The formation of a cabinet, constitutional declaration and legislative institutions represented meaningful progress. Nevertheless, the indirect parliamentary elections, presidential appointment powers and limited national dialogue process illustrated the constraints on political representation.
Civil society organisations had gained greater freedom to operate and public political debate had expanded considerably. However, their influence over decision-making remained limited, while the absence of a clear framework for political parties restricted opportunities for organised political competition.
The discussion highlighted the risk that prolonged exclusion from formal political institutions could encourage communities to rely increasingly on ethnic, tribal and sectarian identities for political mobilisation.
State Legitimacy, Social Cohesion and Transitional Justice
Rebuilding trust between the Syrian state and society emerged as a fundamental requirement for sustainable peace.
Decades of authoritarian rule, prolonged conflict and communal violence had severely weakened social cohesion. The transition therefore required more than administrative reconstruction: it demanded a renewed relationship between citizens, communities and state institutions.
The question of centralisation versus decentralisation featured prominently. Neither approach was regarded as an automatic solution. Rather, meaningful institutional checks, some distribution of authority and a transparent political roadmap were identified as essential to preventing the consolidation of another unaccountable system.
Transitional justice was another major concern. The prosecution of former Assad-era officials, including a highly symbolic public trial connected to the early repression of protests, was discussed as a potential step towards accountability.
However, government-sponsored reconciliation arrangements involving figures associated with the former regime raised questions about consistency and public confidence. Investigations into more recent sectarian violence also attracted criticism over their independence and the extent to which responsibility extended beyond individual perpetrators.
The broader challenge was to establish credible accountability mechanisms capable of addressing historical abuses while ensuring that new security institutions operated under effective oversight.
Internal Security and the Risk of Renewed Fragmentation
Security challenges were examined across several regions of Syria, demonstrating the uneven reach of central authority.
In the coastal areas, tensions involving Alawite and Sunni communities remained a source of instability. In southern Syria, unresolved tensions involving Druze and Bedouin communities presented further challenges, while the northeast continued to face difficulties associated with Kurdish integration and extremist activity.
The reconstruction of Syria’s armed forces was identified as a particularly demanding task. Former factional fighters were being incorporated into newly established military structures, but developing professional discipline, unified command arrangements and effective accountability mechanisms remained difficult.
Concerns also centred on extremist elements within armed formations and the continuing threat posed by Islamic State (ISIS). Despite the loss of its territorial caliphate, ISIS continued to exploit security gaps and political uncertainty.
Particular attention was given to detention facilities and displacement camps in northeastern Syria containing ISIS suspects and associated families. Changes in territorial control and security responsibilities created risks of escapes, renewed radicalisation and institutional breakdown.
The discussion emphasised that durable security depended not simply on expanding military capabilities but on establishing a legitimate, disciplined and accountable state monopoly over the use of force.
Kurdish Integration and the Future of National Unity
The relationship between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) formed a central part of the discussion.
The January 2026 agreement between the Syrian government and the SDF was assessed as an important diplomatic development following significant changes in territorial control and the reduction of American support for Kurdish forces.
Government security personnel had begun entering previously Kurdish-administered areas, but the practical integration of military forces and civilian institutions remained incomplete.
The incorporation of approximately 70,000 Kurdish fighters into the national military presented substantial organisational and political challenges. Questions remained over whether integration would occur individually or through existing military formations, with potentially significant consequences for central command and state consolidation.
The discussion also stressed that military integration alone could not resolve the Kurdish question. Language rights, education, cultural recognition and guarantees of equal citizenship were essential components of any sustainable settlement.
Provisions recognising Kurdish-language education represented a positive development, but their implementation and the broader protection of Kurdish identity remained important tests of the transition.
More generally, overcoming Syria’s fragmentation required dialogue among communities and a government capable of acting impartially in local disputes.
Regional Conflict and Syria’s Sovereignty
The event placed Syria’s domestic transition within the wider conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
Syria’s new diplomatic orientation had helped prevent its direct involvement in the broader regional war. Nevertheless, its territory and airspace remained exposed to military developments beyond its control.
Israeli military operations and territorial incursions in southern Syria were examined alongside Turkey’s continued military presence and influence over armed factions in the north. The withdrawal of American forces introduced further uncertainties, particularly regarding counterterrorism and the security arrangements previously maintained with Kurdish partners.
The discussion highlighted how overlapping foreign agendas complicated efforts to consolidate national sovereignty.
Regional instability also demonstrated the limits of domestic reform when external military actors continued operating on Syrian territory. Sustainable state-building would require both internal legitimacy and a more secure external environment.
Reconstruction, Investment and Economic Recovery
The final part of the event examined Syria’s reconstruction prospects and the economic consequences of the regional war.
The scale of destruction required extensive investment in housing, electricity, healthcare, education and public infrastructure. Although investment agreements had been announced with Gulf partners, particularly Qatar and Saudi Arabia, concerns remained that individual commercial projects did not constitute a comprehensive national reconstruction strategy.
Luxury developments and high-profile investment announcements were contrasted with the urgent needs of destroyed neighbourhoods, displaced communities and returning refugees.
The conflict involving Iran and Gulf states threatened to divert regional financial resources towards domestic priorities, potentially delaying reconstruction commitments. International humanitarian organisations also faced competing emergencies and financial constraints.
Despite these obstacles, diaspora investment and smaller-scale private reconstruction initiatives were identified as potential avenues for gradual recovery.
The discussion also considered women’s participation in Syria’s transition. Although women remained active in civil society and community initiatives, their limited visibility in senior political negotiations and decision-making raised concerns about the inclusiveness of the emerging political order.
Syria’s Long-Term Prospects
The event concluded by examining the relationship between short-term stability and long-term political legitimacy.
The restoration of central authority and Syria’s renewed diplomatic engagement represented important achievements after years of devastating conflict. However, these gains remained vulnerable to institutional weakness, communal mistrust, limited political participation and continuing external intervention.
The central challenge was whether Syria could move beyond managing fragmentation towards building an inclusive political system supported by accountable institutions and a renewed social contract.
While the transition remained uncertain, the discussion recognised opportunities for gradual progress through institutional reform, community reconciliation, economic recovery and broader political participation.
Ultimately, Syria’s future would depend not only on the consolidation of state authority but also on whether that authority could command the trust and participation of the society it sought to govern.