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Is the Anti-Assad Camp Stuck in a Prisoner’s Dilemma?
Recent events surrounding the Syrian war are impacting diplomatic and political processes designed to end it, including Turkish calls for reconciliation talks with the Syrian government. This is a result of Russian efforts to force a rapprochement between Ankara, the Syrian opposition, and the Kurds in northeast Syria with the Assad regime, developing a prisoner’s […]
Why Peace Isn’t Coming to Iran-GCC Relations
Iran and the remaining parties to the nuclear agreement—formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—plus the United States have been locked into talks about its revival for close to a year and a half. Upon the formal adoption of the new agreement and following the initial process it outlines, Iran will have […]
‘Make Friends Not Foes’: Turkey Goes Back to Basics in the Middle East
Since the Arab Spring, Ankara has dreamed of redesigning the region; an ambitious policy that showcased itself in Turkey’s relations with Egypt, as well as the Turkish intervention in the Syrian Civil War. Those expectations, formulated by then-Foreign Minister and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, however, had to be tested by realpolitik, and have since been largely […]
How Israel Has Embraced the ‘New Middle East’
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s former Prime Minister, who is once again running for that office, made a career selling a catching idea. Instead of the unappealing and risky formula of “land for peace,” he promoted “peace for peace.”[i] For decades, this suggestion was ridiculed as either totally unrealistic or just a political ploy. But the dawn […]
Can Europe Sustain the Iranian-Saudi Rapprochement?
On 20 July 2022, the spokesperson of Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs shared an upbeat assessment of the five rounds of the Iranian-Saudi private talks, alluding to the upgrade of participation to an “appropriate level” in the upcoming round.[i] Although the restoration of diplomatic relations between Tehran and Riyadh is on the horizon, relations will remain […]
Beyond a Tacit Security Regime: Constraints on Saudi-Israeli Relations
Israel’s relationship with the Gulf states has been characterised as hostile since the former’s establishment as a state. Yet the shifting regional dynamics following the 2011 Arab Spring have dramatically affected these relations. In particular, relations between Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)—an Arab state which sees itself as the leader of the […]
Book Review: “Sultan Qaboos and Modern Oman, 1970-2020” by Allen James Fromherz and Abdulrahman al-Salimi, eds.
In 2020, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) lost two heads of state, Kuwaiti Emir Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah and Omani Sultan Qaboos bin Sa’id al-Sa’id. Owing to their prominent roles in regional diplomacy, the passing of these two leaders has been aptly described as the deaths of the Gulf’s “mediators-in-chief.”[i] The new edited volume Sultan Qaboos and Modern […]
Rapprochement and Realignment in the Middle East
For years, the Middle East and North Africa has been viewed as a region beset by political upheaval and military conflict. Yet a decade after the Arab Spring provoked uprisings in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, and Syria, it appears that the region is ready to adjust course. Wounded by protracted war, tit-for-tat escalation, and the […]
Domestic Political Chaos Is Not the Only Thing Happening in Iraq
It appears that calm has returned to Iraq after the reported intervention of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the country’s chief and widely respected Shia cleric. In recent weeks, violence had occurred in and near parliament, which has been unable to implement last October’s election results. The clashes involved demonstrators and armed forces loyal to Moqtada al-Sadr, […]
Why Iran Doubts Joe Biden’s Jerusalem Declaration
The Jerusalem Declaration on the US-Israel Strategic Partnership commits the United States and its top Middle East allies “to use all elements of their national power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.” Whilst hailed by some observers as a dramatic policy commitment by the United States, the Islamist Republic is unimpressed. The regime does not […]